Ledger / Prediction #753 · narrative · 24H

Will "ghost" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

69 of 1605 launches in the last hour referenced "ghost" (40 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.19×.

Made2026-10-10 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3937002888244739,
      "momentum": 0.17569541188607388,
      "diversity": -0.20434782608695648
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4706647136785056
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ghost",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.051587301587301584,
    "share60": 0.04327521793275218,
    "total15": 377,
    "total60": 1605,
    "momentum": 1.1920749114993718,
    "diversity": 0.5797101449275363,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 69,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957505555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998229398148148
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4706647136785056
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.222

Log loss0.636

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001253322384769972,
  "shareRatio": 0.5368896723607487,
  "totalAfter": 46277,
  "shareBefore": 0.0023444289496554094,
  "totalBefore": 49479,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 58,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 116
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "ghost" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.13% (-47%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "ghost" (24H). diversity contributed -0.20 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb1bd1dbbbdf4fc7ad4ccae1c71042320769cd84a2c21873534236b2f4d967a3b

Previous hash1c1612f09e1f982ec4a624a9723685c83e0fa8adbd65b38f2e9f9f38781aeeff