Will "vibes" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1605 launches in the last hour referenced "vibes" (8 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.79×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": 0.579797024276334,
      "diversity": -0.6176470588235293
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4687363020037958
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "vibes",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.03835978835978836,
    "share60": 0.021481942714819426,
    "total15": 377,
    "total60": 1605,
    "momentum": 1.785675945096235,
    "diversity": 0.23529411764705882,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957505555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992917592592593
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4687363020037958
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009072164948453608,
  "shareRatio": 0.7672568428734898,
  "totalAfter": 12125,
  "shareBefore": 0.011816838995568686,
  "totalBefore": 8124,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 110,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 96
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity