Ledger / Prediction #749 · narrative · 6H

Will "ghost" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

69 of 1605 launches in the last hour referenced "ghost" (40 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.19×.

Made2026-10-10 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3937002888244739,
      "momentum": 0.17569541188607388,
      "diversity": -0.20434782608695648
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48888520940925295
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ghost",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.051587301587301584,
    "share60": 0.04327521793275218,
    "total15": 377,
    "total60": 1605,
    "momentum": 1.1920749114993718,
    "diversity": 0.5797101449275363,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 69,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957505555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992917592592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48888520940925295
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.239

Log loss0.671

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010721649484536082,
  "shareRatio": 0.11236826981292698,
  "totalAfter": 12125,
  "shareBefore": 0.009847365829640572,
  "totalBefore": 8124,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 80
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "ghost" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.98% → 0.11% (-89%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "ghost" (6H). diversity contributed -0.20 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash84abc71cca8f40e3652fd98e818297ce4453a2f6af3b2ce8af39fa76c2151b9b

Previous hashc045c07a3e1902a1b4ac0f5babdff162cc9c61e7fcd59be6aff2ba8df031c465