Will "description" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
40 of 1199 launches in the last hour referenced "description" (40 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.95×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3119162312519754,
"momentum": -0.046908696069726606,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.565866854001008
},
"features": {
"term": "description",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.03220338983050847,
"share60": 0.03375,
"total15": 294,
"total60": 1199,
"momentum": 0.9541745134965472,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 9,
"launches60": 40,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 40
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 128,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9979913888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979913888888889
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.565866854001008
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.010752688172043012,
"shareRatio": 0.32953058120202344,
"totalAfter": 1395,
"shareBefore": 0.03330557868442964,
"totalBefore": 1201,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 15,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 40
}Predicted 57% that "description" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.33% → 1.08% (-68%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "description" (1H). volume contributed +0.31 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
d4300836a56887a124edf1a08c9ee35ef88edfab6224a402a3c8965111fdb22ba7f1b2adc89762a9f82a3156684e37100a82ea3f56783226f3a42bd5435ae884