GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #74 · narrative · 1H

Will "description" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1199 launches in the last hour referenced "description" (40 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.95×.

Made2026-10-09 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -0.046908696069726606,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.565866854001008
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "description",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.03220338983050847,
    "share60": 0.03375,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1199,
    "momentum": 0.9541745134965472,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 128,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979913888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.565866854001008
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.320
Log loss0.834
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.010752688172043012,
  "shareRatio": 0.32953058120202344,
  "totalAfter": 1395,
  "shareBefore": 0.03330557868442964,
  "totalBefore": 1201,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "description" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.33% → 1.08% (-68%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "description" (1H). volume contributed +0.31 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd4300836a56887a124edf1a08c9ee35ef88edfab6224a402a3c8965111fdb22b
Previous hasha7f1b2adc89762a9f82a3156684e37100a82ea3f56783226f3a42bd5435ae884