Will "anthropic" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1541 launches in the last hour referenced "anthropic" (3 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 2.69×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": 0.9882466739797973,
      "diversity": -0.7714285714285715
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48440919242136504
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "anthropic",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.049653579676674366,
    "share60": 0.01848249027237354,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 1541,
    "momentum": 2.6865199951379606,
    "diversity": 0.10714285714285714,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 240,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991111111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999629629629629
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48440919242136504
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00038830762593032033,
  "shareRatio": 0.3905820558757921,
  "totalAfter": 46355,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010116747263419865,
  "totalBefore": 49423,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity