Will "wallet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1541 launches in the last hour referenced "wallet" (22 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.35×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": -1.046671901865217,
      "diversity": -0.1457142857142857
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3207668659865196
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wallet",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.008083140877598153,
    "share60": 0.023022049286640728,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 1541,
    "momentum": 0.35110431642975637,
    "diversity": 0.6285714285714286,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 240,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991111111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999629629629629
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3207668659865196
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007852443102146478,
  "shareRatio": 0.8569434784135014,
  "totalAfter": 46355,
  "shareBefore": 0.009165773020658397,
  "totalBefore": 49423,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 364,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 453
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity