Will "alternet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

87 of 1541 launches in the last hour referenced "alternet" (30 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.65×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42847053093307247,
      "momentum": 0.4997610068697097,
      "diversity": -0.4862068965517241
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4802633405956556
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "alternet",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.09353348729792148,
    "share60": 0.05674448767833982,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 1541,
    "momentum": 1.6483272847245134,
    "diversity": 0.3448275862068966,
    "launches15": 40,
    "launches60": 87,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 240,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991111111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999629629629629
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4802633405956556
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00010786322942508899,
  "shareRatio": 0.06625998840708582,
  "totalAfter": 46355,
  "shareBefore": 0.0017805475183618963,
  "totalBefore": 49423,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 88
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity