Ledger / Prediction #733 · narrative · 6H
Will "alternet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
87 of 1541 launches in the last hour referenced "alternet" (30 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.65×.
Made2026-10-10 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 10:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.42847053093307247,
"momentum": 0.4997610068697097,
"diversity": -0.4862068965517241
},
"rawProbability": 0.5023542948198243
},
"features": {
"term": "alternet",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.09353348729792148,
"share60": 0.05674448767833982,
"total15": 432,
"total60": 1541,
"momentum": 1.6483272847245134,
"diversity": 0.3448275862068966,
"launches15": 40,
"launches60": 87,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 30
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 240,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9991111111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998518518518519
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5023542948198243
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 16:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.252
Log loss0.698
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00025508035031034776,
"shareRatio": 0.027947627954429517,
"totalAfter": 11761,
"shareBefore": 0.01058780576852866,
"totalBefore": 8217,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 3,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 87
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 50% that "alternet" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.06% → 0.03% (-98%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "alternet" (6H). momentum contributed +0.50 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
6564d5e80e41745a37cb6e169510fc9f6598061e6cd6c820fca9f94c53eed9a2Previous hash
d7a36f33fccf4745cdbb5cf8d6374f0e36ba943b4ee007332dc7182c58f9d30d