Ledger / Prediction #73 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

88 of 1199 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (46 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.17×.

Made2026-10-09 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43018483530661594,
      "momentum": 0.1587773795867685,
      "diversity": -0.27272727272727276
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5040586463960015
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.08644067796610169,
    "share60": 0.07375,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1199,
    "momentum": 1.1720769893708705,
    "diversity": 0.5227272727272727,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 88,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 46
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 128,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979913888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5040586463960015
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.254

Log loss0.701

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.044444444444444446,
  "shareRatio": 0.6080731063733346,
  "totalAfter": 1395,
  "shareBefore": 0.07327227310574522,
  "totalBefore": 1201,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 62,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 88
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.33% → 4.44% (-39%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.43 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha7f1b2adc89762a9f82a3156684e37100a82ea3f56783226f3a42bd5435ae884

Previous hash48002a17c4012d3b2f57f1e8a66e93f423e5cce6ec5013910f1e23b6daeed5db