Ledger / Prediction #721 · narrative · 24H
Will "energy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 42% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
26 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "energy" (14 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.99×.
Made2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.24729879383810724,
"momentum": -0.01386683622869705,
"diversity": -0.2538461538461539
},
"rawProbability": 0.42306418937152146
},
"features": {
"term": "energy",
"rank60": 13,
"share15": 0.016883116883116882,
"share60": 0.017118863049095608,
"total15": 384,
"total60": 1547,
"momentum": 0.9862288654741483,
"diversity": 0.5384615384615384,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 26,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 14
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 213,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9943466666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997644444444445
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.42306418937152146
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 10:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.333
Log loss0.860
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.009621373193307992,
"shareRatio": 1.2277750007695731,
"totalAfter": 46563,
"shareBefore": 0.007835018065197093,
"totalBefore": 49266,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 448,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 386
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 42% that "energy" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.78% → 0.96% (+23%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "energy" (24H). diversity contributed -0.25 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
58b581a16d5f28e33cfd61084e2e129c8f837dc2d1dd24348fd736d6fbb31bd0Previous hash
5bfd6f87cfbb38d848c6c7821d14fef5644de2997547c8d5a07db17c9ea3c06d