Ledger / Prediction #718 · narrative · 6H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
62 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (46 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.32×.
Made2026-10-10 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.37765447089164866,
"momentum": 0.2767340492638949,
"diversity": -0.009677419354838701
},
"rawProbability": 0.5377524540998715
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.053246753246753244,
"share60": 0.04037467700258398,
"total15": 384,
"total60": 1547,
"momentum": 1.3188155844155844,
"diversity": 0.7419354838709677,
"launches15": 20,
"launches60": 62,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 46
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 213,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9943466666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990577777777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5377524540998715
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.289
Log loss0.772
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.02156003505696757,
"shareRatio": 0.4982533217637652,
"totalAfter": 11410,
"shareBefore": 0.04330045706038008,
"totalBefore": 8314,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 246,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 360
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "quantum" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 4.33% → 2.16% (-50%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "quantum" (6H). volume contributed +0.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a6002f85f4300d650b609dae8ff42d8ff0135e09f5f63ed38e39a4afdab8a50ePrevious hash
b172f8559018e70115f73c837da7dde09dd876e17e16b764b83889b5bab6e7f4