Will "friendly" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

14 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "friendly" (5 distinct creators, rank #49). Last 15m momentum 1.25×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1544429125771737,
      "momentum": 0.22140446721163357,
      "diversity": -0.4714285714285714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40237446752581424
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "friendly",
    "rank60": 49,
    "share15": 0.011688311688311689,
    "share60": 0.009366925064599484,
    "total15": 384,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 1.2478280340349306,
    "diversity": 0.35714285714285715,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 14,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 213,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943466666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943466666666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40237446752581424
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.012437810945273632,
  "shareRatio": 1.3672231628126272,
  "totalAfter": 1608,
  "shareBefore": 0.0090032154340836,
  "totalBefore": 1555,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 20,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 14
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity