Will "ticker" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1559 launches in the last hour referenced "ticker" (6 distinct creators, rank #146). Last 15m momentum 0.79×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -0.24093309287770812,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4105019267895463
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ticker",
    "rank60": 146,
    "share15": 0.003778337531486146,
    "share60": 0.004807692307692308,
    "total15": 396,
    "total60": 1559,
    "momentum": 0.7858942065491183,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982697222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982697222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4105019267895463
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006480881399870382,
  "shareRatio": 0.20246113989637307,
  "totalAfter": 1543,
  "shareBefore": 0.004481434058898848,
  "totalBefore": 1562,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity