Ledger / Prediction #697 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 1559 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (11 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.57×.

Made2026-10-10 09:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 10:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": -0.5581739675710333,
      "diversity": -0.6411764705882352
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24030788570983955
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.018891687657430732,
    "share60": 0.033012820512820513,
    "total15": 396,
    "total60": 1559,
    "momentum": 0.5722530630212027,
    "diversity": 0.21568627450980393,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982697222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982697222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24030788570983955
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 10:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.577

Log loss1.426

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.07258587167854828,
  "shareRatio": 2.2113474017807735,
  "totalAfter": 1543,
  "shareBefore": 0.03265044814340589,
  "totalBefore": 1562,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 112,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 24% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.27% → 7.26% (+122%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.64 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 76% and wrong on "uxento". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4c5ba7ff5d08e3a669852b346769d91a1b35fdb73cc01db1b038739e560dddd5

Previous hashe4f954bd6b8e8e84c6af47ddeaacbc9ae5705254d1b40d0001d0ee514f01bac3