Ledger / Prediction #685 · narrative · 6H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (28 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.05×.

Made2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": 0.7156191029008677,
      "diversity": 0.08823529411764701
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.613956720630556
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0536231884057971,
    "share60": 0.02621580547112462,
    "total15": 344,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 2.04545263600084,
    "diversity": 0.8235294117647058,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 28
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 202,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932422222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988737037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.613956720630556
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.149

Log loss0.488

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.017973701636552833,
  "shareRatio": 1.2919332884127508,
  "totalAfter": 10571,
  "shareBefore": 0.01389352006224297,
  "totalBefore": 8997,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 190,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 125
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "dog" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.39% → 1.80% (+29%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dog" (6H). momentum contributed +0.72 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaa4683f32258837c856fed05cf9a779b59d4106d959465b26d97bf4ff31d842f

Previous hash1b306e7d3ac0d511b8d3ab69cf6b025b29cfcd14d28a6c4cfbefffe83cdd003f