Ledger / Prediction #677 · token · 1H

Will $pumpGPT+ still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-10 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791237
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "D4SrFEJWHQEy56Nm1gfVjEPmMf9uHPBroVQPUWsepump",
    "name": "pumpGPT+",
    "symbol": "pumpGPT+",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 110,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 4970.23566750638,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 390,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791237
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 09:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T09:24:08.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3088.7643712833087,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7700.285927708465,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 4970.23566750638,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 9940.47133501276
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $pumpGPT+ would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,089, still trading). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $pumpGPT+ (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe38c5210c573af5cfe601fe981521c4bc448c0cecf004174e90ba2d8ad2e4cc9

Previous hashe96d70f681087b99918d229927a3eb1c198b3b88e2fb50c03291ab331194e697