Ledger / Prediction #652 · narrative · 1H
Will "nigger" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
12 of 1180 launches in the last hour referenced "nigger" (4 distinct creators, rank #49). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.
Made2026-10-10 08:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.13132031060308497,
"momentum": -1.8845519208500727,
"diversity": -0.5
},
"rawProbability": 0.07220968266635854
},
"features": {
"term": "nigger",
"rank60": 49,
"share15": 0.001607717041800643,
"share60": 0.010584250635055038,
"total15": 310,
"total60": 1180,
"momentum": 0.15189710610932475,
"diversity": 0.3333333333333333,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 12,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 192,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918269444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918269444444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.07220968266635854
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.005
Log loss0.075
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.03588502269288956,
"totalAfter": 1321,
"shareBefore": 0.010126582278481013,
"totalBefore": 1185,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 12
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 7% that "nigger" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.01% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "nigger" (1H). momentum contributed -1.88 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
2d5bec12bef8f773af0a0ff668ea27498be50a6b188cfd6e2be03372bf756e20Previous hash
b11023fef12fd9e5d83097d8b00b6f662c7887de2a1b80413c8fa8736a7b8e56