Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 1180 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (37 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.49×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": 0.4010355957754021,
      "diversity": 0.10909090909090913
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6309604268709162
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.05627009646302251,
    "share60": 0.03767993226079593,
    "total15": 310,
    "total60": 1180,
    "momentum": 1.4933704252321256,
    "diversity": 0.8409090909090909,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 192,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918269444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918269444444444
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6309604268709162
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.026495079485238455,
  "shareRatio": 0.6999551129657029,
  "totalAfter": 1321,
  "shareBefore": 0.0379746835443038,
  "totalBefore": 1185,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 35,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity