Ledger / Prediction #640 · narrative · 6H
Will "insane" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1212 launches in the last hour referenced "insane" (3 distinct creators, rank #197). Last 15m momentum 2.68×.
Made2026-10-10 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.9859063050650471,
"diversity": -0.18000000000000002
},
"rawProbability": 0.5656523492573146
},
"features": {
"term": "insane",
"rank60": 197,
"share15": 0.012152777777777778,
"share60": 0.004534212695795548,
"total15": 287,
"total60": 1212,
"momentum": 2.6802398989898992,
"diversity": 0.6,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 199,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952283333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992047222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5656523492573146
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.189
Log loss0.570
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0020542761379608605,
"shareRatio": 2.51410492845787,
"totalAfter": 9249,
"shareBefore": 0.0007892659826361484,
"totalBefore": 10136,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 19,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 8
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 57% that "insane" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.21% (+160%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "insane" (6H). momentum contributed +0.99 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
75eb5b31f393bc0e681a8d2eb6442685a0844345489c9994af341967be68f883Previous hash
3c08f4a07f4de9a122a21fb714068eebf78926c22042fe0db246c8009928d3cf