Ledger / Prediction #629 · token · 1H

Will $Riptide still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 24m ago. X link. Rides hot term "market".

Made2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791243
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "BTY6ach4rnxnMuFTxHa4aqKhvAzvURgxhVMq19fRL58z",
    "name": "Riptide",
    "symbol": "Riptide",
    "hotTerms": [
      "market",
      "chain"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 24,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 126,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3070.5486402516094,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 386,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791243
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 08:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3070.5486402516094,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3070.5486402516094,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6141.097280503219
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $Riptide would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,071, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $Riptide (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash57bf026b554df8800e2ba0fe67bbec4b440a929eec9edcad5f25aa33da8d24fe

Previous hash8178357c8a127715d1f92ef76d622bdc1dbc851c7dd1f3d1f6f316dc81c5f12c