Ledger / Prediction #628 · narrative · 24H

Will "pot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1219 launches in the last hour referenced "pot" (6 distinct creators, rank #137). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

Made2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.19785135841208187,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49065103872397203
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pot",
    "rank60": 137,
    "share15": 0.006493506493506494,
    "share60": 0.005327868852459016,
    "total15": 384,
    "total60": 1219,
    "momentum": 1.218781218781219,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99882,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999508333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49065103872397203
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 07:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.241

Log loss0.675

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008083214566803514,
  "shareRatio": 0.5173586428173452,
  "totalAfter": 47011,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015727445413509264,
  "totalBefore": 48959,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 38,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 77
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "pot" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.16% → 0.08% (-49%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "pot" (24H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8178357c8a127715d1f92ef76d622bdc1dbc851c7dd1f3d1f6f316dc81c5f12c

Previous hashf95fdbe53dc25468b7bb31d50c4bfb4bf552712496e2452031dd2a417f078d03