Will "investment" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
18 of 1219 launches in the last hour referenced "investment" (15 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 3.00×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.19214007681930967,
"momentum": 1.0977929522847072,
"diversity": 0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.597477712666833
},
"features": {
"term": "investment",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.045454545454545456,
"share60": 0.015163934426229509,
"total15": 384,
"total60": 1219,
"momentum": 2.9975429975429977,
"diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
"launches15": 17,
"launches60": 18,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 15
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 168,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.99882,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999508333333333
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.597477712666833
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0005530620493076089,
"shareRatio": 0.6814335819696153,
"totalAfter": 47011,
"shareBefore": 0.0008170101513511306,
"totalBefore": 48959,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 26,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 40
}Predicted 60% that "investment" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.06% (-32%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "investment" (24H). momentum contributed +1.10 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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