Will "open" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1219 launches in the last hour referenced "open" (19 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": -0.41061273491782496,
      "diversity": 0.18571428571428572
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.423909436033807
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "open",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.011688311688311689,
    "share60": 0.01762295081967213,
    "total15": 384,
    "total60": 1219,
    "momentum": 0.6632437330111749,
    "diversity": 0.9047619047619048,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99882,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998033333333334
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.423909436033807
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007935620878506761,
  "shareRatio": 0.8317883443521634,
  "totalAfter": 8947,
  "shareBefore": 0.009561459961386411,
  "totalBefore": 10877,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 71,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 104
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity