Ledger / Prediction #617 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 1219 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (40 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

Made2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -0.4206731819436666,
      "diversity": -0.027272727272727247
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4041358506578502
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.02987012987012987,
    "share60": 0.04549180327868853,
    "total15": 384,
    "total60": 1219,
    "momentum": 0.6566046566046565,
    "diversity": 0.7272727272727273,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99882,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99882
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4041358506578502
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 08:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.163

Log loss0.518

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02278481012658228,
  "shareRatio": 0.5109536180362487,
  "totalAfter": 1185,
  "shareBefore": 0.045008183306055646,
  "totalBefore": 1222,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.50% → 2.28% (-49%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). momentum contributed -0.42 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9b8d06bffb41d75f746198724a81effecc47f73a772b8892dda07cb60f22215b

Previous hash1cbf3a2e9eeeb8486d49a08804bd991ec0ec2a376d379d5ee2343a42ad3a1bea