Ledger / Prediction #606 · narrative · 6H

Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1118 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (11 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

Made2026-10-10 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 12:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -2.5950145917003895,
      "diversity": -0.42857142857142855
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09659711673931336
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "read",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0019011406844106464,
    "share60": 0.02546916890080429,
    "total15": 262,
    "total60": 1118,
    "momentum": 0.07464478687212328,
    "diversity": 0.39285714285714285,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941033333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990172222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09659711673931336
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 12:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.102

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008456176436978631,
  "shareRatio": 0.8692423319114361,
  "totalAfter": 8751,
  "shareBefore": 0.009750152346130409,
  "totalBefore": 11487,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 74,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 112
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "read" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.98% → 0.85% (-13%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "read" (6H). momentum contributed -2.60 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7c0726fd09c1fe425a92cb3d34e8102878062d7d4f37e10d2db1592c4c9c1453

Previous hash72ebe16af7e4a855597d6818a19d5b2d3938f24578396ff8f43d44077986b115