Ledger / Prediction #603 · narrative · 1H

Will "behind" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1118 launches in the last hour referenced "behind" (11 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

Made2026-10-10 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 07:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -2.5950145917003895,
      "diversity": -0.42857142857142855
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "behind",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0019011406844106464,
    "share60": 0.02546916890080429,
    "total15": 262,
    "total60": 1118,
    "momentum": 0.07464478687212328,
    "diversity": 0.39285714285714285,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941033333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9941033333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 07:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0024671052631578946,
  "shareRatio": 0.1135233317476106,
  "totalAfter": 1216,
  "shareBefore": 0.02491103202846975,
  "totalBefore": 1124,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "behind" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.49% → 0.25% (-90%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "behind" (1H). momentum contributed -2.60 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash07463e19335c82aef206e37397dcdd38b88ddab5f8a540f2e69328d7ae29fe53

Previous hash347fceabc6cf6f63c20607e828f37283874a44ada9989e8c208527da54af471e