Ledger / Prediction #601 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 1118 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (39 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.44×.

Made2026-10-10 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 07:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": 0.36760670654924144,
      "diversity": -0.03333333333333335
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.596572815426932
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.07034220532319392,
    "share60": 0.04870420017873101,
    "total15": 262,
    "total60": 1118,
    "momentum": 1.4442739037918164,
    "diversity": 0.7222222222222222,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941033333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9941033333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.596572815426932
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 07:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.356

Log loss0.908

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03700657894736842,
  "shareRatio": 0.7717503561924721,
  "totalAfter": 1216,
  "shareBefore": 0.04804270462633452,
  "totalBefore": 1124,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.80% → 3.70% (-23%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed +0.37 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3231eca078ca69404ae1e23bb61aab61f2aeeb7185892761b6cd83303020bf92

Previous hash840e72864cb07ecea979001898410e34fe5262d2697b6069c7e6d496b49c3b59