Ledger / Prediction #592 · narrative · 6H

Will "hub" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "hub" (15 distinct creators, rank #31). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.

Made2026-10-10 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": -2.070977717126326,
      "diversity": 0.15882352941176467
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18093708721698895
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hub",
    "rank60": 31,
    "share15": 0.0017921146953405018,
    "share60": 0.01421608448415922,
    "total15": 278,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 0.12606246799795187,
    "diversity": 0.8823529411764706,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977241666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996206944444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18093708721698895
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.033

Log loss0.200

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003534817956875221,
  "shareRatio": 0.2554224365016071,
  "totalAfter": 8487,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015731081304851797,
  "totalBefore": 12078,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 19
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 18% that "hub" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.16% → 0.04% (-78%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "hub" (6H). momentum contributed -2.07 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc4bcd4da65640f16d1a5eb19d4fd7b2bc3f1caaab08c1c889743f8e6ccdd3fb7

Previous hash31f37a32942fa67a4c0b7c4da1bd5e523bb28d6e8d90b3c99ee672a736b3b054