Will "discovered" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
34 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "discovered" (34 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.28753839182730917,
"momentum": 0.2947862774892515,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.578745890720128
},
"features": {
"term": "discovered",
"rank60": 13,
"share15": 0.03763440860215054,
"share60": 0.028025995125913892,
"total15": 278,
"total60": 1230,
"momentum": 1.3428393330216613,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 10,
"launches60": 34,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 34
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 162,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9977241666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996206944444445
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.578745890720128
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.004830917874396135,
"shareRatio": 1.5748617656299089,
"totalAfter": 8487,
"shareBefore": 0.0030634210962079815,
"totalBefore": 12078,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 41,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 37
}Predicted 58% that "discovered" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.48% (+58%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "discovered" (6H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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