Ledger / Prediction #584 · token · 6H

Will $e still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 30 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03407773968429842
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "26m7xbZ5mh9YbVPGXy1RW8GiVSgPEb1Rg2zFhAQXpump",
    "name": "e",
    "symbol": "e",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 4078.3282364669103,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 30
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 460,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03407773968429842
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 11:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.035

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T05:12:19.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 875.5654164104657,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 11958.698102858023,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 4078.3282364669103,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 8156.656472933821
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $e would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $876, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $e (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash427e6c031479f30860863126b770f3abcce7614ea0fa7f856c3054d93d21fb8a

Previous hash2bde65c6e5ddd994d6e0de68e76c9b4b24b428d445c7998ca30a94e05d3284f1