Ledger / Prediction #579 · narrative · 24H

Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 1528 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (31 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 1.04×.

Made2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": 0.035955937155141976,
      "diversity": 0.2625
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49711261156064657
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.022033898305084745,
    "share60": 0.021255722694571617,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1528,
    "momentum": 1.0366101694915253,
    "diversity": 0.96875,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 222,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9930063888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997085995370371
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49711261156064657
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.253

Log loss0.699

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.018784270047978068,
  "shareRatio": 1.1903959087609346,
  "totalAfter": 46688,
  "shareBefore": 0.015778650976240406,
  "totalBefore": 49117,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 877,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 775
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "chain" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 1.58% → 1.88% (+19%). INCORRECT.

— volume was right but too weak on "chain" (24H). volume contributed +0.28 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "chain" (24H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1827f397d1d684961d0e9c14c578ef58b376956be5df94484db56d545ff62df6

Previous hash9d320dd750144d6f8fddbbe9bf108ba8ac98b685d65e61fa13dadd5ecc6e48b0