Will "crocodile" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 74% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1528 launches in the last hour referenced "crocodile" (5 distinct creators, rank #216). Last 15m momentum 5.18×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.6453938495892424,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.7430297366075673
},
"features": {
"term": "crocodile",
"rank60": 216,
"share15": 0.01864406779661017,
"share60": 0.0035971223021582736,
"total15": 294,
"total60": 1528,
"momentum": 5.183050847457627,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 222,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9930063888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988343981481481
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7430297366075673
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.003416300634455832,
"shareRatio": 7.989242183947565,
"totalAfter": 8196,
"shareBefore": 0.0003956635277360133,
"totalBefore": 12637,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 28,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 5
}Predicted 74% that "crocodile" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.04% → 0.34% (+763%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "crocodile" (6H). momentum contributed +1.65 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
1153270e2bfa8fc2ed1db1541826a720c4dec72acd7c318c0e69f44d3f796bcb08df9f5ce53e6f61f5250a3dd17cb450f8f9c1c2dca596dc80ec9f26ef8781e2