Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 1528 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (25 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.54×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": -0.6133886207464103,
      "diversity": 0.009090909090909082
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37171508607315706
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.011864406779661017,
    "share60": 0.021909744931327666,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1528,
    "momentum": 0.5415127751075133,
    "diversity": 0.7575757575757576,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 222,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9930063888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988343981481481
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37171508607315706
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.016715470961444608,
  "shareRatio": 1.6758517166938063,
  "totalAfter": 8196,
  "shareBefore": 0.009970720898947535,
  "totalBefore": 12637,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 137,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 126
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity