Ledger / Prediction #570 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 1528 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (8 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.61×.

Made2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": 0.4753225969389878,
      "diversity": -0.7666666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4523302663306046
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.07627118644067797,
    "share60": 0.047416612164813604,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1528,
    "momentum": 1.6085330216247808,
    "diversity": 0.1111111111111111,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 222,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9930063888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9930063888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4523302663306046
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.205

Log loss0.602

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.025800711743772242,
  "shareRatio": 0.5479909297052155,
  "totalAfter": 1124,
  "shareBefore": 0.04755700325732899,
  "totalBefore": 1535,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 29,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 73
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.76% → 2.58% (-46%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.77 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd1204ab9e4174f81a48125a98da5ad16e0f23480572559f0530532bf6faed08f

Previous hash661b585648655455281f3c261ca6c4e6e18972252e6573b30707d0d992cb9e52