Ledger / Prediction #568 · token · 6H

Will $$GOAT still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 21m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 3 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "BBZ4YJKk3pUZiGAuYR1xP6bQJrhHnavssmm6B1yjpump",
    "name": "goat coin",
    "symbol": "$GOAT",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 21,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 7,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3087.0483004285124,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 3
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 580,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 11:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.023

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T04:40:46.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 1323.2116424957646,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3087.0483004285124,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3087.0483004285124,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6174.096600857025
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $$GOAT would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $1,323, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $$GOAT (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash00a0467b3aeae0c74adf0d7129a657e9b3608c8790531725b83c69412b74c426

Previous hashdcbdf0fdda40369d3beb84a18bcdcc062d96f6fcfdaf07488ef72bf2e5c7243f