Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
36 of 1795 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (31 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 2.47×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2961121539033014,
"momentum": 0.90271471837526,
"diversity": 0.1333333333333334
},
"rawProbability": 0.5905114545903817
},
"features": {
"term": "intelligence",
"rank60": 13,
"share15": 0.05012224938875306,
"share60": 0.02032293986636971,
"total15": 408,
"total60": 1795,
"momentum": 2.466289312389055,
"diversity": 0.8611111111111112,
"launches15": 20,
"launches60": 36,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 31
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 254,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968686111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998695254629629
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5905114545903817
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.015456082889131506,
"shareRatio": 1.9808758603701215,
"totalAfter": 46713,
"shareBefore": 0.007797866275755355,
"totalBefore": 49116,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 722,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 383
}Predicted 59% that "intelligence" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.78% → 1.55% (+98%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "intelligence" (24H). momentum contributed +0.90 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
c27009c8a8e2c7d271e2ceb2d3ea717440dd92a0cbf3d108aab3478a9ac178b50dffcbf557ae487061723a2974f62159d8aceb8cf7b47dfa96ffdbd5e6a9c831