Will "charlie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1795 launches in the last hour referenced "charlie" (4 distinct creators, rank #226). Last 15m momentum 0.40×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.9182931799790274,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2888850512994772
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "charlie",
    "rank60": 226,
    "share15": 0.0012224938875305623,
    "share60": 0.003062360801781737,
    "total15": 408,
    "total60": 1795,
    "momentum": 0.3991998221827073,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 254,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968686111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994781018518518
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2888850512994772
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.14622657342657341,
  "totalAfter": 8124,
  "shareBefore": 0.00038261401897765536,
  "totalBefore": 13068,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity