GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #542 · narrative · 6H

Will "persuasion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

88 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "persuasion" (49 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.80×.

Made2026-10-10 04:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 10:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43018483530661594,
      "momentum": 1.3359498834183547,
      "diversity": -0.23181818181818187
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6843901985927568
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "persuasion",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.17735470941883769,
    "share60": 0.04662802950474183,
    "total15": 498,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 3.803607214428858,
    "diversity": 0.5568181818181818,
    "launches15": 88,
    "launches60": 88,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 49
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998689212962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6843901985927568
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 10:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.100
Log loss0.379
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0107095046854083,
  "shareRatio": 1.5122415473679034,
  "totalAfter": 8217,
  "shareBefore": 0.007084870848708487,
  "totalBefore": 13550,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 88,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 96
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 68% that "persuasion" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 1.07% (+51%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "persuasion" (6H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1e9f348baffb67508bedacdab3a832fbd608616a4781ef3c90856fee34d13599
Previous hash006dbb5df19ceadbf4ebf91abd9a0b0dee085ac54c588337d2664d08a3fd1572