Will "frog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2220 launches in the last hour referenced "frog" (3 distinct creators, rank #280). Last 15m momentum 1.19×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.1779188361729834,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42530312401710174
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "frog",
    "rank60": 280,
    "share15": 0.0029585798816568047,
    "share60": 0.002476361999099505,
    "total15": 506,
    "total60": 2220,
    "momentum": 1.1947283485745024,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 249,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954858333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.988149837962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42530312401710174
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004407339916091028,
  "shareRatio": 1.5196743728884365,
  "totalAfter": 47194,
  "shareBefore": 0.002896811438266879,
  "totalBefore": 48329,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 208,
  "coverageBefore": 0.9883379282407407,
  "launchesBefore": 140
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity