GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #531 · narrative · 24H

Will "unit" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 2220 launches in the last hour referenced "unit" (32 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 3.80×.

Made2026-10-10 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": 1.3353716248640266,
      "diversity": -0.26
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6044528831815975
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "unit",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.10355029585798817,
    "share60": 0.02723998199009455,
    "total15": 506,
    "total60": 2220,
    "momentum": 3.8014083818279625,
    "diversity": 0.5333333333333333,
    "launches15": 52,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 249,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954858333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.988149837962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6044528831815975
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.365
Log loss0.928
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004025935500275459,
  "shareRatio": 0.2754339113947635,
  "totalAfter": 47194,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014897887396801092,
  "totalBefore": 48329,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 19,
  "coverageBefore": 0.9883379282407407,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "unit" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.04% (-73%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "unit" (24H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7e3e1c5948c0fc786dc2b00033f1778c82302a46f4936fdb4ed6c6898c41ae8d
Previous hash6f2a5598de7eef6f839c4a5412e536ef7d1166637438fb4ac2c85412a5ec1afd