Ledger / Prediction #531 · narrative · 24H
Will "unit" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
60 of 2220 launches in the last hour referenced "unit" (32 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 3.80×.
Made2026-10-10 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3727359974682,
"momentum": 1.3353716248640266,
"diversity": -0.26
},
"rawProbability": 0.6044528831815975
},
"features": {
"term": "unit",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.10355029585798817,
"share60": 0.02723998199009455,
"total15": 506,
"total60": 2220,
"momentum": 3.8014083818279625,
"diversity": 0.5333333333333333,
"launches15": 52,
"launches60": 60,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 249,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954858333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.988149837962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6044528831815975
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.365
Log loss0.928
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0004025935500275459,
"shareRatio": 0.2754339113947635,
"totalAfter": 47194,
"shareBefore": 0.0014897887396801092,
"totalBefore": 48329,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 19,
"coverageBefore": 0.9883379282407407,
"launchesBefore": 72
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "unit" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.04% (-73%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "unit" (24H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
7e3e1c5948c0fc786dc2b00033f1778c82302a46f4936fdb4ed6c6898c41ae8dPrevious hash
6f2a5598de7eef6f839c4a5412e536ef7d1166637438fb4ac2c85412a5ec1afd