Ledger / Prediction #528 · narrative · 6H

Will "system" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 2220 launches in the last hour referenced "system" (6 distinct creators, rank #101). Last 15m momentum 0.88×.

Made2026-10-10 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": -0.13223609213085616,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3750432611612566
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "system",
    "rank60": 101,
    "share15": 0.004930966469428008,
    "share60": 0.005628095452498875,
    "total15": 506,
    "total60": 2220,
    "momentum": 0.8761341222879684,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 249,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954858333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992476388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3750432611612566
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.141

Log loss0.470

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015636276160692808,
  "shareRatio": 0.5864257210017884,
  "totalAfter": 8314,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027328299172959367,
  "totalBefore": 13905,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 38
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "system" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.27% → 0.16% (-43%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "system" (6H). diversity contributed -0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash41a1ee6a16bc16810c2a8301f613351f2bde2cef69b6be40596dfe196b61b1df

Previous hash60fb2b64cb68ac0236dc2075775532441941c504d9f817fc94fe2680d877985f