Ledger / Prediction #507 · narrative · 1H

Will "petawatt" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 76% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

62 of 2308 launches in the last hour referenced "petawatt" (32 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.86×.

Made2026-10-10 03:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 04:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.37765447089164866,
      "momentum": 1.3509790554038636,
      "diversity": -0.2806451612903226
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7591432918103109
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "petawatt",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.10451505016722408,
    "share60": 0.027067994802944997,
    "total15": 597,
    "total60": 2308,
    "momentum": 3.8612040133779266,
    "diversity": 0.5161290322580645,
    "launches15": 62,
    "launches60": 62,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 317,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990972222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990972222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7591432918103109
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 04:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.576

Log loss1.423

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001563314226159458,
  "shareRatio": 0.06743333333333333,
  "totalAfter": 1919,
  "shareBefore": 0.026828212894850715,
  "totalBefore": 2311,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 62
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 76% that "petawatt" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.68% → 0.16% (-94%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "petawatt" (1H). momentum contributed +1.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 76% and wrong on "petawatt". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash67f87965a2c80c1c5a66955e2b95aa2534baf75853803d914a7fb086c2e565b1

Previous hashb980bf922eda6e50b3ddd7b23b1020bb3bb3c696f39e7509508d42489a5b7a6a