Ledger / Prediction #505 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

94 of 2308 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (11 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.96×.

Made2026-10-10 03:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 04:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 03:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4400785304753855,
      "momentum": -0.04062035794572012,
      "diversity": -0.7595744680851063
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3407134878491324
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.039297658862876256,
    "share60": 0.04092680814205284,
    "total15": 597,
    "total60": 2308,
    "momentum": 0.9601935906283733,
    "diversity": 0.11702127659574468,
    "launches15": 23,
    "launches60": 94,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 317,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990972222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990972222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3407134878491324
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 04:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.116

Log loss0.417

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01771756122980719,
  "shareRatio": 0.43961640211640207,
  "totalAfter": 1919,
  "shareBefore": 0.04067503245348334,
  "totalBefore": 2311,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 94
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.07% → 1.77% (-56%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.76 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf3a2b008267017e2ffdb0b5939942404c131b2db2f7dbc5c2c19976d6ac4e68d

Previous hash4d942e57dc5b944f75cbba4f3bcfc0d644cd251b1aee43634c0077a2ae54bb3e