Ledger / Prediction #504 · token · 6H

Will $GTA6 still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. X link, website, Telegram. No hot term. Creator launched 16 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0.2,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06633258836535354
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CZedSKwcEnDEd3jU3tG4UyxyxPTWA2xk3UntnRxbpump",
    "name": "GTA Online 6",
    "symbol": "GTA6",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": true,
    "descriptionLength": 47,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 14522.48411094388,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 16
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 695,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.06633258836535354
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeSUSTAINED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.872

Log loss2.714

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": true,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T09:00:24.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 305.5374979088955,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 43599.929799964,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 14522.48411094388,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 29044.96822188776
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $GTA6 would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: SUSTAINED (market cap $306, graduated). INCORRECT.

— serialCreator misled on $GTA6 (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 93% and wrong on $GTA6. Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4d942e57dc5b944f75cbba4f3bcfc0d644cd251b1aee43634c0077a2ae54bb3e

Previous hash043d6036280bd8b7bffeddffbd79bc513bc6d046705f1a5d7ea66fa1d173b975