Will "rug" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2166 launches in the last hour referenced "rug" (9 distinct creators, rank #134). Last 15m momentum 2.36×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.8597932739263503,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5802940563411642
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "rug",
    "rank60": 134,
    "share15": 0.010357815442561206,
    "share60": 0.004383940932164283,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2166,
    "momentum": 2.3626722172663297,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9464326388888888
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5802940563411642
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002022603111055507,
  "shareRatio": 0.3962131678102248,
  "totalAfter": 47958,
  "shareBefore": 0.0051203054826321846,
  "totalBefore": 46091,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 97,
  "coverageBefore": 0.9466671643518518,
  "launchesBefore": 236
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity