Ledger / Prediction #498 · narrative · 24H

Will "usepaid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

68 of 2166 launches in the last hour referenced "usepaid" (25 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.39×.

Made2026-10-10 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.391510468911301,
      "momentum": -0.948694588072168,
      "diversity": -0.45882352941176463
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.30831603168777233
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "usepaid",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.01224105461393597,
    "share60": 0.031610521458237194,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2166,
    "momentum": 0.38724620946568244,
    "diversity": 0.36764705882352944,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 68,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9464326388888888
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.30831603168777233
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.095

Log loss0.369

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006297176696275908,
  "shareRatio": 0.6897365402342852,
  "totalAfter": 47958,
  "shareBefore": 0.009134104271983684,
  "totalBefore": 46091,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 302,
  "coverageBefore": 0.9466671643518518,
  "launchesBefore": 421
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "usepaid" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.91% → 0.63% (-31%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "usepaid" (24H). momentum contributed -0.95 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8882b4c4648b169402915ee9ba331c46d39bb356642d6a9be3978c864c8491aa

Previous hash5cbf4a0c680c541533f7259397bd429605d20c99745adfe0bce0da587e3421b9