GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #496 · narrative · 6H

Will "wojak" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2166 launches in the last hour referenced "wojak" (5 distinct creators, rank #271). Last 15m momentum 1.57×.

Made2026-10-10 03:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.45082553526698377,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5261565098602569
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wojak",
    "rank60": 271,
    "share15": 0.004708097928436911,
    "share60": 0.0029995385325334565,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2166,
    "momentum": 1.569607417065044,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990618981481482
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5261565098602569
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.277
Log loss0.747
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012226297654773814,
  "shareRatio": 0.4354957058730588,
  "totalAfter": 8997,
  "shareBefore": 0.0028995756718528994,
  "totalBefore": 14140,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "wojak" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.12% (-58%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "wojak" (6H). momentum contributed +0.45 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash77f54402090d648d6f4db047a736ff95347f5707d362e3ce0ca012688db7724b
Previous hash653bf60ada8a0c1674d6af33c559f67d75389a57430fb7bc731492dea049eb9a