Ledger / Prediction #495 · narrative · 6H

Will "top" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 2166 launches in the last hour referenced "top" (8 distinct creators, rank #18). Last 15m momentum 0.44×.

Made2026-10-10 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -0.8152790501659584,
      "diversity": -0.6658536585365854
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24678023949463448
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "top",
    "rank60": 18,
    "share15": 0.00847457627118644,
    "share60": 0.01915089986155976,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2166,
    "momentum": 0.4425158260159281,
    "diversity": 0.1951219512195122,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990618981481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24678023949463448
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.061

Log loss0.283

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0040013337779259755,
  "shareRatio": 0.6709047754601737,
  "totalAfter": 8997,
  "shareBefore": 0.006011315417256012,
  "totalBefore": 14140,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 25% that "top" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.60% → 0.40% (-33%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "top" (6H). momentum contributed -0.82 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash653bf60ada8a0c1674d6af33c559f67d75389a57430fb7bc731492dea049eb9a

Previous hash6eb0d9ffc0f19a7ecbceeb445e87754c9855167b94f8b6eacaf272cd2c5c3ec6