Will "mayhem" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2166 launches in the last hour referenced "mayhem" (5 distinct creators, rank #17). Last 15m momentum 1.55×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 0.4369364231063167,
      "diversity": -0.7604651162790698
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4254266900332052
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mayhem",
    "rank60": 17,
    "share15": 0.031073446327683617,
    "share60": 0.02007383479464698,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2166,
    "momentum": 1.547957659588285,
    "diversity": 0.11627906976744186,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990618981481482
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4254266900332052
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.014115816383238857,
  "shareRatio": 2.6896021636426286,
  "totalAfter": 8997,
  "shareBefore": 0.005233380480905233,
  "totalBefore": 14140,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 127,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 74
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity