Ledger / Prediction #493 · narrative · 6H

Will "angel" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

85 of 2166 launches in the last hour referenced "angel" (3 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.88×.

Made2026-10-10 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4249820016084324,
      "momentum": -0.1244086635640151,
      "diversity": -0.8576470588235294
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33404383914450225
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "angel",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.03483992467043315,
    "share60": 0.03945546838947854,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2166,
    "momentum": 0.8830189094833758,
    "diversity": 0.03529411764705882,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 85,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990618981481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33404383914450225
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.112

Log loss0.406

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006335445148382794,
  "shareRatio": 0.47188177007133003,
  "totalAfter": 8997,
  "shareBefore": 0.013507779349363508,
  "totalBefore": 14140,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 57,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 191
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "angel" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.35% → 0.63% (-53%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "angel" (6H). diversity contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5d7caf0a7e8805a1a04caa3941b70fc4bcd6111e96e8cdbff6bf3270de66e540

Previous hashb3a156398127ffbd1cbe9a13c9f97b135d271409fcdddc6a0094edffb40cf0ec